INDUSTRIAL USES OF AGRICULTURAL MATERIALSAugust 6, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
INDUSTRIAL USES OF AGRICULTURAL MATERIALS Situation and Outlook is publishedonce a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. July 1997, IUS-7. This is the last of the three years this report was published in any form.Please note that the electronic version of this reportcontains only the text of INDUSTRIAL USES OF AGRICULTURAL MATERIALS--tables and graphics are not included.
Contents Summary Introduction Macroeconomic and Industrial Outlook Starches and Sugars Fats and Oils Natural Fibers Special Articles Crambe Production and Processing: A Case Study of theEffects on Rural Areas in North Dakota Comparative Economics of Producing Lesquerella in Various Areas of the Southwestern United States
List of TablesCoordinator Lewrene Glaser voice (202) 219-0091, fax (202) 219-0035, e-mail lkglaser@econ.ag.gov Contributors Jacqueline Salsgiver, ERS David Torgerson, ERS Allen Baker, ERS Roger Conway, ERS, Office of Energy and New Uses James Duffield, ERS, Office of Energy and New Uses Charles Plummer, ERS Lewrene Glaser, ERS Donald Van Dyne, University of Missouri Statistical Support Betty Barrett Mae Dean Johnson Charles Plummer Editor Martha Evans Graphics, Design, and Layout Fannye Lockley-Jolly Wynnice Pointer-Napper Cynthia Ray Acknowledgments This is the last issue of this report series. Many organizations and people have supported and contributed to the report since its inception in 1993. Funding has been received from the U.S. Department of Energy and USDA's Alternative Agricultural Research and Commercialization Corporation; Agricultural Research Service; and Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service; with in-kind support from the Forest Service. Thanks also tothe many individuals who have contributed time and expertise to the report over the years, including Harry Parker, Professor of Chemical Engineering at Texas Tech University, and Donald Van Dyne, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri. Mention of private firms or products does not indicate endorsement by USDA. Summary Industrial Use of Agricultural and Forestry Materials Estimated at $110 Billion in 1992 An estimated $110 billion worth of agricultural and forestry products were used as raw materials in the manufacture of industrial (nonfood, nonfeed) products in 1992, according to the most recent census data available. Wood and paper products accounted for $96 billion, more than 87 percent of the total. Other fibrous materials, animal products, natural rubber, and vegetable oils were among the other agricultural materials used in the manufacture of nonfood items. After wood and paper products, other fibrous materials (with a total value of nearly $7 billion), were the next largest category of agricultural materials used by industry in 1992. Raw cotton use (estimated at $3.1 billion) accounted for 45 percent of all fibers. Other cotton products, including cotton yarns, fabrics, felt, linters, and waste, added another $3.3 billion. Animal products were the third largest category of agricultural materials used as industrial inputs in 1992, totaling nearly $3.5 billion. Hides, skins, and pelts, valued at $1.2 billion, were purchased by the leather and leather products industry. Another $1.5 billion of finished leather was used in the manufacture of leather products and apparel. The extraordinary 5.9-percent growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 1997 will give way to more moderate growth for the rest of 1997 and 1998. Even as GDP growth moderates, the economy will support manufacturing output growth of 4.0 percent for 1997. Forces driving the manufacturing sector will spur modest growth in industries that use agricultural inputs. Industrial uses of corn in 1996/97 are expected to total 681 million bushels, up from the 642 million used in 1995/96. Ethanol production has rebounded from the low levels experienced in 1995/96, averaging 81,000 barrels per day from January to June 1997. Markets are growing for citric and lactic acids, two organic chemicals usually derived from starch and sugar feedstocks. Soybean meal is being used to make adhesives and composites. Soybean oil is finding its way into plastics, inks, and solvents. In 1996, about 300 million pounds of soybean oil were used in inedible applications, accounting for 2.5 percent of total consumption. In the United States, composite building materials are being made from straw. Straw bales are being used in the construction of buildings. Researchers are investigating straw as a raw material for paper. Uses of kenaf continue to expand. Numerous companies are producing and selling kenaf-based products. Crambe is a new industrial oilseed being grown in North Dakota. A special article presents analysis, using an input-output model, estimating the economic effects of crambe production, the construction of an oilseed processing plant to handle the crop, and the crushing of the crop in a 15-county region in central North Dakota. The results indicate that nearly $10 million in total sales and 42 new wage and salary jobs will be added to the region as a direct result of the increase in the production and processing of the 1997 crambe crop. Through local purchases of supplies and the spending of crambe-related income, the industry will generate an estimated additional $2.8 million in total sales and 46 wage and salary jobs. Building the plant added an estimated 46 temporary construction positions in the region, which generated an estimated increase of $2.2 million in sales and another 40 jobs in various industries as the workers spent their wages. Lesquerella is a new oilseed crop under development in the southwestern United States. A second special article evaluates the possibility of growing lesquerella in 21 counties in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. A sensitivity analysis was prepared to estimate lesquerella's net returns per acre given varying combinations of production costs, seed yields, and seed prices. Estimated net returns of traditional crops in these counties were analyzed to assess lesquerella's chances of being economically competitive with other crops. Introduction Industry Used an Estimated $110 Billion of Agricultural Materials in 1992 An estimated $110 billion worth of agricultural and forestry products were used as raw materials in the manufacture of industrial (nonfood, nonfeed) products in 1992, according to the most recent census data available. Wood and paper products made up more than 85 percent of the value. Cotton, natural rubber, and vegetable oils were among the other raw materials used by industry. Very little data are publicly available on industrial uses of agricultural materials. Moreover, when data are available, the information often reflects a particular raw material or use. There are no overall statistics on the volume or value of agricultural materials used by industry. In an attempt to get a comprehensive estimate of industrial uses of agricultural materials, the Economic Research Service (ERS) focused on data sources for industrial production. Using data from the 1992 Census of Manufactures, ERS analysts have estimated the value of agricultural materials used by industry. The Census of Manufactures is part of the economic census of the Nation's economy taken every 5 years in the second and the seventh year of each decade. The Census of Manufactures contains statistics for individual industries or groups of related industries, including the number of establishments, employment, payroll, value added by manufacture, value of materials consumed, product shipments, and other industrial statistics. The census reports the value of materials consumed or used in production by establishments in various industries based on six-digitmaterial codes. With the help of chemists and chemical engineers, ERS analysts developed a list of material codes that are classified as agriculturally derived, partially agriculturally derived, or potentially derived from agriculture (see tables 8-11 for a list of codes that were used in the analysis). The agriculturally derived category contains materials that are obtained from agricultural, forestry, or natural-plant sources. Agricultural materials used by the food and tobacco industries were not included in this analysis, since the objective was to isolate industrial (nonfood, nonfeed) uses of agricultural materials. The materials in the agriculturally derived category have received various amounts of processing, from goods with little processing, like raw cotton, to finished products used as intermediate goods, such as vegetable oils. The partially derived category contains: o materials or chemicals that are partially derived from agricultural sources, o agriculturally based materials or chemicals that are in an aggregated group containing agriculturally based and nonagriculturally based materials or chemicals, and o materials or chemicals that can be derived from either agricultural or petroleum sources, but information onthe derivation is not provided in the code description. Finally, the potentially derived-from-agriculture group includes materials that may in the future be derived from agricultural or forestry products, but presently petroleum sources are used. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and other researchers are actively exploring new processes and procedures to expand industrial uses of agricultural materials, and these are examples of potential future products. Using material codes as a basis for estimating the value of agricultural materials used by industry has some limitations. The codes are part of the Standard Industrial Classification, which is the classification used for all establishment-based Federal economic statistics on industries. The value of agricultural materials used as inputs by manufacturing industries may be underestimated because of how the data are collected and reported. Underestimation can occur for several reasons. First, in addition to the total cost of materials, which every establishment was requested to report, information was collected from most manufacturing industries on the consumption of major materials used in manufacturing. The inquiries were restricted to those materials that were important parts of the cost of production in a particular industry and for which cost information was available from manufacturers' records. The value of materials used by the establishment but not listed separately on the census form are included as "not elsewhere classified." Also, the cost of materials for small establishments for which either administrative records or shorter census forms were used was imputed by the Census Bureau as "not specified by kind." Thus, because the use of agricultural materials in a manufacturing process may not be significant or well known makes their inclusion in the census unlikely. For example, information from small establishments that may use agricultural materials in production to satisfy niche markets would not be identified. Second, if establishments consumed less than a specified amount, usually $25,000, of a specific material, they were not requested to report consumption of the material separately. Since the value of some agricultural materials may be low, particularly for specific establishments, it is likely that they may have been among those materials included in the "not elsewhere classified" category. Third, because the census is conducted on an establishment basis, some data are withheld from publication to avoid disclosing information for individual companies. Finally, some material codes include a large variety of materials. Ifthe majority of the materials in these codes were deemed likely not to be agriculturally based, they were excluded from the partially agriculturally derived category. Overestimating the value of agricultural products may occur through duplication in the cost of materials among industries. Within a census industry, inputs are additive. However, when combining material codes from different industries representing successive stages in the production of finished manufactured goods, the possibility of double counting occurs. For example, the value of cotton is counted twice when it is first an input into the manufacture of an intermediate good (yarn), and second, when the yarn is used as an input in the manufacture of fabric. Industries Spent $96 Billion on Wood and Paper Inputs in 1992 Given the limitations, it is estimated that more than $110 billion of agricultural and forestry products were used as raw materials in the manufacture of industrial products in 1992, according to the most recent census data available. Wood and paper accounted for more than 87 percent or $96 billion (figure 1, table 9). Other fibrous materials, animal products, natural rubber, and vegetable oils were among the other agricultural materials used in the manufacture of nonfood items (table 8). After wood and paper products, other fibrous materials were the next largest category of agricultural materials used by industry, with a total value of nearly $7 billion. Raw cotton use accounted for 45 percent of all nonwood fibers, estimated at $3.1 billion. Other cotton products, including cotton yarns, fabrics, felt, linters, and waste, added another $3.3 billion. Industries also used $370 million worth of raw wool and wool materials in 1992, such as felt, yarn, noils, and waste. Animal products were the third largest category of agricultural materials used as industrial inputs in 1992, totaling nearly $3.5 billion. Hides, skins, and pelts, valued at $1.2 billion, were purchased by the leather and leather products industry. Another $1.6 billion of finished leather was used in the manufacture of leather products and apparel. Nearly $600 million worth of animal fats, oils, greases, and tallow were inputs into the production of perfumes, cosmetics, and chemical preparations. Establishments involved in the manufacture of medicinal chemicals and pharmaceutical preparations purchased $51 million worth of pharmaceutical-grade gelatin. Finally, $16 million of dressed hair, including horse hair, was used to make brooms and brushes. An additional $69 billion of raw materials that are partially derived from agricultural sources were used as manufacturing inputs in 1992 (table 10). However, $69 billion may overestimate the value of agriculturally based materials because the category includes intermediate goods that are derived both from agricultural and petroleum sources. For example, the "knit fabrics" material code is considered partially agriculturally derived because it includes natural fabrics, like wool, along with synthetic fabrics, like polyester. In 1992, industry used $3.6 billion of raw materials that came from petroleum sources, but in the future may come from agricultural and forestry products (table 11). This estimateis meant to give researchers only a rough indication of potential market size. For each new use, agriculturally derived materials will have to compete with their more well-established, petroleum-based counterparts. For example, a new technology has been developed for turning cornstarch into propylene glycol, glycerine, and ethylene glycol but is not yet in commercial use. Also, researchers are studying the use of soybean and other vegetable oils in printing inks (see Fats and Oils section for more information). Agricultural Materials Were Used by All Industry Major Groups All Industry Major Groups used agriculturally derived materials in 1992 (table 1). The paper and allied products industry was the largest user, spending nearly $39 billion on agricultural inputs and $2.6 billion on intermediate goods partially derived from agricultural sources (figure 2). The lumber and wood products industry was next, using $23 billion and $0.6 billion of agriculturally derived and partially agriculturally derived materials, respectively. The chemicals and allied products industry was the third largest industry group, spending $5.5 billion on agriculturally derived materials and $16 billion on partially derived intermediate goods. How important agricultural and forestry materials were as inputs varied among industries. Nonfood manufacturing industries spent nearly $180 billion on agriculturally derived and partially agriculturally derived materials in 1992, which is nearly 8 percent of the $2.3 trillion spent on raw material inputs used in production. The two categories were most important to the leather and leather products industry, accounting for 38 percent of all inputs (figure 3). Agriculturally derived and partially agriculturally derived materials were also an important source of inputs to the paper and allied products and apparel industries, accounting for 32 and 31 percent of all inputs, respectively; although for the apparel industry, most of the inputs came from the partially derived category. [Jacqueline Salsgiver, ERS, (202) 501-7107, jsalsgiv@econ.ag.gov] Macroeconomic and Industrial Outlook U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Moderate in the Rest of 1997 and 1998 The strong growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first half of 1997 will give way to more moderate growth for the rest of 1997 and 1998. Even as GDP growth moderates, the economy will support manufacturing-output growth of 4.0 percent for 1997. Forces driving the manufacturing sector will spur modest growth in industries that use agricultural inputs. U.S. industries that use agricultural inputs tend to be mature industries and, as such, find their economic prospects closely tied to changes in the general U.S. economy. This section provides an overview of the U.S. economy and manufacturing sector, focusing on nine major industries that use agricultural materials. The U.S. economy continues its seventh year of economic expansion. In the first quarter of 1997, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an extraordinary annualized rate of 5.9 percent, which supported a 5.3-percent increase in manufacturing (table 2). Ordinarily, the strong manufacturing growth that has occurred in the previous year and the maturity of the economic recovery would bring a moderation in manufacturing output. However, that has not happened. The only major component of GDP that fell in the first quarter of 1997 was net exports, as the real trade deficit widened by almost $18 billion. Exports rose at an 11-percent annual rate, $18 billion, while imports rose by 23 percent, $36 billion. The growth of manufactured goods exports in the first quarter was concentrated in auto parts, computers, and airplanes. This export growth, along with a strong inventory buildup and a sharp increase in consumer demand for trucks, led to the strong manufacturing output seen in early 1997. Manufacturing growth remained strong in the second quarter, while GDP growth moderated. Among the nine industries using agricultural materials, the increase in output during the first half of 1997 was even more remarkable for those not subject to strong foreign price competition. Lumber and products output rose 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 1997 due to a weather-induced increase in commercial and residential construction and a rise in building-supply-store inventories. Without a strong economy, lumber output and/or prices would have fallen despite the warm winter. With housing demand high because of strong labor income growth (from higher real wages and strong employment gains) and record high levels of consumer confidence, lumber product output rose 9.2 percent in the second quarter. Stable mortgage rates, strong corporate profits, and abundant credit further supported commercial construction. Similarly, transportation equipment output rose 14.2 percent in the first quarter due to an unusually strong 22.4-percent annualized growth in car and truck production. The strong vehicle output reflected a rebuilding of inventories and strong growth in light truck sales. Consumer vehicle spending was supported by good personal income growth and record consumer confidence levels. Because of warm weather, light truck sales occurred in January and February instead of the more usual April or May. Reflecting this early buying, transportation equipment output dropped 3.4 percent in the second quarter. Although furniture and household equipment sales were strong in the first quarter, the growth was from higher appliance sales and furniture inventory liquidation and not furniture output, which stagnated during the quarter. During the second quarter, furniture output expanded at an annualized rate of 10.3 percent because of strong disposable income growth and the previous quarter's inventory liquidation. Of the nine industries, those that have more direct foreign competition did less well during the first half of 1997. Textile mill production was flat in the first quarter, despite booming clothing and vehicle sales. Because of the strong dollar, imported textiles supplied the increased demand. In contrast, textile production rose 6.1 percent in the second quarter. Rubber production and chemicals and products output were hurt by the strong dollar during the first half of 1997, which slowed exports, increased imports, and resulted in subpar growth. Industrial machinery is a very competitive sector internationally. The roughly 10-percent growth in machinery output from the second quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 1997 has been driven by computer and office equipment production, which expanded over 28 percent during the year. The spectacular growth in domestic equipment investment was supported by very strong computer export growth over the same period. The restof the machinery sector, which is the part that uses agricultural materials, has been growing much less rapidly. The United States has a comparative advantage in the production of office equipment and a comparative disadvantage in making many other types of machinery. Similarly, leather goods production, which is quite labor intensive, continues to decline irrespective of the rate of economic growth. The Outlook Is for More Modest Growth A potential risk to continued economic growth evaporated in early 1997, as crude oil prices, which peaked at over $23 per barrel in December 1996, fell below $19 per barrel by May 1997. A risein fuel prices is not expected this summer despite the usual summer increase in fuel demand because of plentiful world supplies. Crude oil prices should average below $19 per barrel for the next seven quarters; various forecasts range from $16 to $19 per barrel. Low energy prices will help support manufacturing by slowing input price inflation throughout 1997 and 1998. Preliminary data show strong industrial production and employment growth and declines in retail sales during the second quarter, which suggest strong inventory accumulation that may exceed the first quarter's $31.5 billion. In the second quarter, GDP is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of between 2.4 and 2.6 percent as manufacturing output increased 4.4 percent. Some of the first quarter's extraordinary growth spilled over into manufacturing in the second quarter. The slowdown via the corrections in inventories, business investment, and consumer durable spending should be evident by the third quarter of 1997. The cyclical adjustments that will slow spending growth on consumer durables and producer equipment and generate a lower rate of inventory buildup may be facilitated by a modest tightening of interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this fall. This will mean more modest growth in GDP and manufacturing in the second half of 1997 and 1998. For those six quarters,GDP is expected to grow at an average annualized rate of about 2.2 percent. Record high consumer confidence will fall as employment growth moderates, although wage gains will keep confidence from falling sharply. Tight labor markets will result in real wage gains in both 1997 and 1998. The expected continued growth in real wages, as employment gains moderate, is key to strong disposable income growth for the rest of 1997 and 1998. Growing after-tax personal income will mean continued growth in consumer spending. The growth of consumer spending on durable goods, which has supported manufacturing growth, will be modest. Consumer debtis at very high levels, so lenders will be more careful about making new loans. The Fed's likely hike in short-term interest rates, done to keep inflation from accelerating in 1998, will be reflected in somewhat higher long-term rates. Higher commercial interest rates and tighter standards for consumer credit will constrain growth in spending on durable goods, such as cars, furniture, and household appliances. Moreover, the pent-up demand for durable goods has mostly been filled. From 1994 through the first quarter of 1997, consumer spending on cars, furniture, and appliances was very high, largely reflecting postponement of purchases due to slow personal income growth, high interest rates, or lack of credit availability from 1990 to 1993. Near-term growth in durable goods demand will be based largely on demographics, such as new household formation. Consumer spending on services and nondurables will be the major components of consumer spending growth through the end of 1998. Higher wages will slow employment growth as employers shed excess workers to offset lower profit growth. Tighter credit standards and flat business profits will slow growth in business equipment sales, especially in 1998. Higher interest rates will keep the dollar strong in 1997 and 1998. A strong dollar and modest growth in the economies of our major trading partners, except for Canada, will slow export growth to single-digit levels and keep import growth somewhat higher. On average, the trade deficit should rise modestly for the second half of 1997. The slowdown in investment and export growth will further curtail future manufacturing growth. Government spending will increase very modestly as lower Federal purchases are offset by local governments spending the higher income- and excise-tax revenues resulting from higher wages. Prospects for Industrial Materials Moderate As a result of slowing growth in construction, spending on consumer durables and business equipment, and exports, no major manufacturing sector will do as well in the last half of 1997 or 1998 as they did from the second quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 1997. Nevertheless, the strength of the U.S. economy, even as growth moderates, will increase manufacturing output 4.0 percent for all of 1997. Forces driving the manufacturing sector will spur modest growth in the nine industries using agricultural inputs. However, in 1998, noncomputer manufacturing will grow only 1 percent, making prospects for further growth in the nine industries modest to poor. Lumber and products output will grow about 2 percent in 1997 and 1 percent in 1998. Construction growth will slow during the rest of this year and next. Lumber prices should fall modestly because of a decline in capacity utilization. Furniture and fixtures output is expected to grow 3 percent in 1997, reflecting many people's desire to fill their relatively new houses with new furniture. The furniture sector is expected to grow 2 percentin 1998, reflecting market maturity. Sluggish demand will bring small price cuts in 1998. Transportation equipment will grow 5 percent in 1997, reflecting further growth in light truck and bus sales. Prices are expected to rise about 2 percent. The prospects for 1998 are for a mere 1-percent growth in output, triggered by modest price cuts. The generally austere Federal budget will curtail large purchases of fleet buses and subway cars by local transit authorities in 1998. Output of textile mill products has bounced back from the flat first quarter and should finish 1997 with 3-percent growth because of a rise in spending on household furnishings driven by good personal income growth. The strong dollar will keep price increases at 1 percent in 1997. In 1998, output should rise 5 percent, again due to household furnishings demand. Wholesale textile prices should be up 3 percent in 1998, reflecting strong demand. Paper and products output should rise 4 percent in 1997 and 3 percent in 1998, reflecting good personal income growth. Prices should increase 4 to 6 percent by the end of 1998, as supplies continue to be tight. Chemical and products output should beup 4 percent in 1997. Most of the rise will be driven by increased sales of drugs and agricultural chemicals. A modest expansionin chemical exports in 1998, due to a rise in foreign economic growth, will boost output 1.5 percent. Rubber and plastic production will increase 3.6 percent in 1997 because of strong consumer demand and higher production of transportation equipment. In 1998, output growth will slow to about 1.5 percent, reflecting modest gains in consumer demand. Prices should rise about 4 percent by the end of 1998. The Midterm Prospects for U.S. Manufacturing The potential for continued growth in U.S. manufacturing is good. The next decade is expected to have moderate GDP growth, slowly rising real oil prices, only a modest increase in inflation from current levels, a dollar not greatly overvalued compared with the relative purchasing power of our trading partners' currencies, and a balanced budget by 2002. However, the manufacturing sector has three interrelated challenges. The sector is highly cyclical, dependent on appropriate adoption of new technology, and exposed to international competition. Manufacturing demand is driven by consumer demand for durables, business investment in plant and equipment, and exports, all very cyclical parts of GDP. Manufacturing has become increasingly dependent on export markets and is subject to quality and price competition from foreign firms. For example, the very high value of the dollar from 1982 to 1986 severely curtailed manufacturing growth and led to a consolidation within the sector, personnel downsizing, and the bankruptcy of many smaller firms. The manufacturers that survived did so by adopting appropriate technology and using new capital investment. In this process, many jobs were lost and labor productivity rose sharply. The U.S. auto industry went from a declining sector to one that reinvented itself and adopted the inventory practices and niche-market-seeking philosophy of its Japanese competitors. Costs went down and American cars became cost competitive. The major risks to moderately good manufacturing growth over the next decade are: o Prolonged or very deep recessions; o A substantial real oil price shock as large as 1973-74 and lasting for several years, which would increase interestrates and likely slow investment spending; o A greatly overvalued dollar for several years, as occurred during the mid-1980's; or o A trade war. [David Torgerson, ERS, dtorg@econ.ag.gov, (202) 501-8447] Starches and Sugars Ethanol, Citric Acid, and Lactic Acid Use Corn as a Feedstock Industrial uses of corn in 1996/97 are expected to total 681 million bushels, up from the 642 million used in 1995/96. Ethanol production has rebounded from the low levels experienced in 1995/96. Markets are growing for citric and lactic acids,two organic chemicals usually derived from starch and sugar feedstocks. Industrial uses of corn in 1996/97 are expected to total 681 million bushels, up from the 642 million used in 1995/96 (table 3). In 1997/98, industrial uses of corn may account for 736 million bushels, a further increase over this crop year. Industrial uses will account for 7 percent of the supply of corn in 1996/97, the same percentage as in 1995/96 when supplies were lower, and a similar proportion is expected in 1997/98. Corn used to produce ethanol in 1996/97 increased 10 percent from a year earlier. In 1995/96, ethanol producers were caught between higher costs for inputs, moderate increases in coproduct prices, and stable prices for competing products, which limited their ability to raise ethanol prices. Thus, many ethanol producers suspended operations to do maintenance on their plants. Corn used for ethanol production in 1997/98 is expected to increase from 1996/97 as ethanol firms continue production with prices competitive with other oxygenates. In 1996/97, corn used for manufacturing alcohol was about the same as the previous year. In 1995/96, about 60 million bushels of corn were used for manufacturing alcohol, up from 36 million in 1994/95. Even with tight supplies of corn in 1995/96, higher prices for industrial alcohol relative to fuel alcohol kept corn use strong. In 1997/98, corn used for manufacturing is expected to be about the same as in 1996/97. Corn used in industrial starch production in 1996/97 will likely be about the same as the 186 million bushels used a year earlier. In 1995/96, corn used for starch production was down 3 percent from the 192 million bushels used in 1994/95. As producers passed along the higher costs of corn in 1995/96, their buyers apparently found alternative products that were less expensive. Corn prices in 1997/98 are expected to be down from a year earlier and corn use for starch production will likely increase. Industrial starch prices and corn use are not highly correlated because starch users and starch producers tend to contract ahead to meet their needs (figure 4). Ethanol Production Rebounds Somewhat The financial squeeze ethanol producers experienced in 1995/96 has dissipated as corn prices have dropped and prices of gasoline and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) have increased. Blending margins for ethanol have greatly improved from last summer when the wholesale price of gasoline was almost 28 cents per gallon less than that for ethanol, excluding the 54-cents-per-gallon ethanol tax incentive. Ethanol prices are strongly influencedby gasoline prices because a large proportion of ethanol is blended into regular gasoline as an octane enhancer and fuel extender. In the spring of 1997, the price difference had narrowed to about 6 cents per gallon. Ethanol also has been competitive with its main rival, MTBE, in oxygenated-fuel-mandated areas because MTBE prices have been on an upward track until recently. While ethanol production is increasing because of more favorable economics, it has not rebounded to the peak level of 1995 (figure 5). From January to June 1997, ethanol production has averaged 81,000 barrels per day. In comparison, U.S. MTBE production averaged 187,000 barrels per day during the same period. In addition to domestic production, significant amounts of MTBE are imported, particularly to the West Coast. About 435 million bushels of corn are estimated to be used for ethanol production in the 1996/97 crop year. With this amount of corn, plus sorghum and other feedstocks, ethanol production is expected to total 28.6 million barrels in 1996/97, up from 24.8 million barrels in 1995/96. Ethanol producers are apparently still trying to regain the market share they lost in octane and oxygenated fuel markets when corn prices reached record levels during 1995/96. The loss cannot be overcome immediately, because producers must reestablish long-term contracts with blenders. After last year's extended maintenance shut downs, ethanol producers found many petroleum firms already had committed to MTBE for the winter oxygenate season. In May 1997, stocks of ethanol were 166 percent of a year earlier, suggesting by the winter oxygenate season, petroleum firms will find plentiful supplies of ethanol for blending. Another reason for the slow rebound is that a robust market for beverage exports has diverted production from fuel-grade alcohol. Demand Is Growing for Citric and Lactic Acids Many organic chemicals can be derived from starch and sugar feedstocks, including citric and lactic acids. These two organic acids have multiple uses, both food and industrial, and have growing markets. Though both chemicals can be derived synthetically, biobased production methods are the main source of these commodities. Both citric and lactic acid are derived by microbial fermentation of a carbohydrate feedstock. Either crude sugars, such as sucrose or molasses, can be used or the sugar feedstock can be derived from any starch-rich crop, including potatoes, sweet potatoes, wheat, barley, rice, and corn. Citric acid is the largest volume organic acid produced by fermentation, accounting for approximately 85 percent of the fermentation-based organic acid market (6). In addition to wide use as an acidulant in the food and beverage industry, it also is used in a variety of industrial and pharmaceutical applications as an acidulant, dispersing agent, sequestering agent, water-conditioning agent, detergent builder, and cleaning agent. In the United States, about 45 percent of citric acid is used in the beverage industry, 23 percent in foods, 20 percent in detergents, 6 percent in pharmaceuticals, and 6 percent in other chemical processing industries. Output in the three main producing regions of Western Europe, the United States, and China, which together account for about 88 percent of world capacity, was estimated to be over 1.2 billion pounds in 1994 (1). With steady growth rates in citric acid markets in recent years, production in these regions in 1997 could be as high as 1.3 to 1.7 billion pounds. However, another estimate puts the world market at less than 1 billion pounds annually (6). Estimates on the value of the world market also differ, ranging from less than $1 billion to as high as $2 billion annually. In the United States, citric acid production is estimated to be about 475 million pounds annually, with an industrial capacity of about 490 million pounds (3). U.S. domestic demand for citric acid is assessed to be between 400 and 450 million pounds per year, with a market value of about $340 to $380 million. Continued market expansion is expected due to growth in traditional and new uses. With strong growth, improved product value in specialty applications, and increased production capacities, the market for U.S.-produced citric acid could reach $650 to $750 million by the year 2005. The three major U.S. producers are Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM); Cargill, Inc.; and Haarmann and Reimer Corporation (H&R), a subsidiary of Bayer. Currently, most citric acid in the United States is produced via submerged (deep-tank) fermentation of corn-derived glucose or dextrose. Other carbohydrate sources, such as potato, sweet potato, and wheat starch, may be utilized, but on a smaller scale due to their higher cost relative to cornstarch. H&R, the only major producer not vertically integrated back to feedstocks, is looking to sell its citric acid plant. ADM, on the other hand, recently announced plans to build a new bioproducts plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, that will produce citric acid, lactic acid, lysine, xanthan gum, and glycerine. In recent years, vertical integration and large facilities, which take advantage of economies of scale, have become very important to the profitable operation of fermentation facilities. Another organic acid that has the opportunity for expanded use due to developing industrial applications is lactic acid. Itis produced by either fermentation of a carbohydrate feedstock or synthetically by hydrolysis of lactonitrile. About 85 percentof lactic acid demand is for food and food-related applications, particularly as a general purpose food additive and to produce emulsifying agents for use in baked goods. Lactic acid also is used in foods and food preparation as an acidulant, flavor enhancer, preservative, texture modifier, antibacterial agent, and preservative for meat carcasses. Some examples of industrial applications, which currently account for about 15 percent of lactic acid use, include use as an ingredient or intermediate in the manufacture of numerous chemicals, a mordant in dyeing wool, a pH balancer in shampoos and soaps, and as the building block for polylactic acid (PLA), a biodegradable polymer (for information on PLA, see the September 1995 issue of this report). Much of the lactic acid used in the United States has traditionally been imported from Europe, although U.S. production is on the rise. ADM is the largest U.S. producer, followed by several other companies such as Cargill, A.E. Staley Manufacturing Company, and Chronopol, Inc. Total U.S. capacity is estimated to be near 40 million pounds per year, although this will likely rise as companies expand capacity and form joint ventures to build new plants. For example, Cargill has entereda joint venture with the Purac Group, a subsidiary of the Dutch food multinational CSM, to produce lactic acid at a new plant being built in Blair, Nebraska. Purac is the largest producerof lactic acid in the world, with plants in Europe, South America, and the United States. Although the bulk of the market for lactic acid is fairly mature and slow-growing, newer applications, such as the manufacture of biodegradable polymers, will likely increase lactic acid demand. Current U.S. demand for lactic acid is estimated at about 55 million pounds and total world demand near 150 million pounds (2, 4). Assuming lactic acid is worth an average $1.15 per pound, U.S. and world markets would be valued at approximately $63 million and $173 million, respectively. These values will likely rise as the use of new lactic acid products grows and production technology improves. Conservative estimates have the market growing 3 to 5 percent annually (5), while higher estimates put the range at 8 to 10 percent annually. [Industrial uses of corn: Allen Baker, ERS, (202) 219-0360, albaker@econ.ag.gov. Ethanol: Roger Conway, OENU, (202) 219-1941, rkconway@econ.ag.gov, and James Duffield, OENU, (202) 501-6255, duffield@econ.ag.gov. Citric and lactic acids: Charles Plummer, ERS, (202) 219-0717, cplummer@econ.ag.gov] 1. Bradley, Rosemary, Hossein Janshekar, and Yashukiko Sakuma, "CEH Abstract: Citric Acid," Internet abstract ofa Chemical Economic Handbook report, http://piglet.sri.com/CEH/,undated. 2. "Cargill and Purac Link Up For Major Lactic Acid Plant," Chemical Marketing Reporter, May 27, 1996, p. 5. 3. "Chemical Profile: Citric Acid," Chemical Marketing Reporter, April 1, 1996, p. 37. 4. "Ecochem Drops Out of Lactic Acid," Chemical Marketing Reporter, November 28, 1994, p. 4. 5. "Lactic Market Is Reshuffling," Chemical Marketing Reporter, May 13, 1996, p. 7. 6. Madia, Ashwin, "Organic Acids," 1995 Regulatory Seminar, Corn Refiners Association, Inc., Washington,DC, pp. 91-99. Fats and Oils Soybean Meal and Oil Make Inroads in New Industrial Applications Soybean meal is being used to make adhesives and composites. Soybean oil is finding its way into plastics, inks, and solvents. In 1996, 305.2 million pounds of soybean oil were used in inedible applications, accounting for about 2.5 percent of total consumption. Soybeans contain both meal and oil. Soybean meal is currently the more valuable component obtained from processing soybeans, although this can change when relative prices of commodities change. Over 90 percent of soybean meal is used as a high-protein ingredient in livestock feed. A small portion of soymeal is milled into flour or grits, primarily for edible applications, or used in the preparation of protein concentrates and isolates, which have food and industrial applications. Soybean oil is the most widely used and least costly domestic vegetable oil, so it is frequently used in industrial applications. It is a source of fatty acids that are used to produce surfactants, emulsifiers, and alkyd resins for paints. One major industrial use is as epoxidized soy oil for a plasticizer in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other plastics. In 1996, 305.2 million pounds of soybean oil were used in nonfood applications, such as livestock feed and the manufacture of resins, plastics, paints, inks, and soaps. This constituted roughly 2.5 percent of all soybean oil consumed in 1996, with the remaining 12 billion pounds going into edible uses (table 25). Soybean oil accounts for about 75 percent of the vegetable oil produced in the United States. Due to the abundance of domestic soybean production, research and development of industrial uses of vegetable oils have tended to concentrate mainly on soybean oil. For example, research on biodiesel has focused on using soybean oil as a major feedstock. Most biodiesel production today is used for testing and demonstration projects, but demand could increase in coming years (see the August 1996 issue of this report for more information on biodiesel). A variety of public and private research on finding new uses for soybeans is underway. Much of this research is funded bya checkoff program in which farmers pay for promotion, research, and market development through an assessment on the sale of their crop. The United Soybean Board (USB) , which distributes a portion of the earmarked money, has approved more than $6.6 million for new-product research and development from fiscal 1997 funds. The money is being used to fund 34 new projects with 1- and 2-year grants to universities, private companies, and public research facilities. Many of the new applications use soybean oil, but new uses for soybean meal also are being pursued. This article highlights examples of recent market successes and ongoing research projects. Soy-Based Composites Are on the Market One of the most successful new soybean-based products recently brought to market is a composite material that looks like granite and works like wood. Environ is comprised of 45-percent soybean flour and 45-percent old newspapers, with inks, oils, and other materials accounting for the remaining 10 percent. It is manufactured by Phenix Biocomposite, Inc., of Mankato, Minnesota, into 3-by-6-foot boards, which are used to make furniture, paneling, flooring, and other wood-like products. The company cites studies that the product has a potential market of $1.8 billion a year by 2000. Construction has begun on a new 150,000- square-foot production facility in Mankato. The $29-million plant should be operational in early 1998. Commercialization of New Wood Adhesives and Composites Is Imminent Research on new soybean-based wood adhesives promises performance, economic, and environmental benefits. One product, developed by Kriebich and Associates of Seattle, Washington, is an adhesive specifically developed for use in finger-jointing lumber. The process takes short scrap pieces of lumber and glues them end-to-end to make longer, more marketable lumber. The soy-based adhesive works in tandem with a traditional adhesive. The soy-based adhesive is applied to one piece of wood and the traditional adhesive to the other piece. When the pieces are joined, a strong bond forms in seconds. The water- and boil-proofbond is created without the use of heat, saving energy and time compared with traditional adhesives. The soy-based adhesive has a high tensile strength, which exceeds the minimum standards for finger joints. Using short lengths of lumber to make marketable products supplements scarce supplies of saw logs. Additional mill trials are planned for this year. If the tests are successful, commercial sale of the adhesive is anticipated to begin in 1998. Other soy-adhesive research has focused on making composites, such as plywood, particleboard, and oriented-strand board (OSB) or chipboard. University of Minnesota researchers are conducting tests to make OSB using soy flour and methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) adhesive. MDI is commonly used in OSB production. Researchers combine the two adhesives to make a powder that is applied to wood chips. The chips are coated with the adhesive mixture and fed into a press. Heat and pressure bond them to one another to form a high-quality OSB. The soy-based adhesive could replace half of the more expensive MDI, resulting in less expensive OSB. Four other research projects in the woodproducts area are testing the use of different forms of soy derivatives from whole meal to protein concentrates and isolates. Researchers Attempt To Increase Soy Use in Plastics In 1996, approximately 121.1 million pounds of soybean oil were used in plastics and resins, the largest category of inedible uses (table 25). Much of this was used to make epoxidized soybean oil, a plasticizer used to modify the properties of PVC and other plastic resins (see the June 1994 issue of this report for more information on vegetable oil-based plasticizers). Soybean oil currently accounts for only 3 percent of the plasticizers used to make PVC pipes and other products. If too much soybean oil is used in the formulation, the oil causes the PVC to become brittle and degrade. Research is being conducted in an attempt to modify soybean oil, enabling manufacturers to use up to 25 percent soybean oil in the plasticizing process. The majority of the plasticizers used in forming PVC resins are petroleum-based or generic phthalic esters, which sell for approximately 56 cents per pound. In comparison, the price of soybean oil has averaged 25 cents per pound during the last 5 years (table 36). Finding practical ways to modify the oil while maintaining its lower price is critical to the success of the project. Another area of plastics research sponsored by the USB is the use of soybean meal or flour in the manufacture of biodegradable foams and films. Scientists at the University of Missouri at Rolla have developed prototype materials that are being tested for such uses as rigid insulation boards and agricultural mulching films. Planned field testing will help researchers to refine formulations for improved performance. Inks Now a Large User of Soy Oil Soybean oil is used in ink formulations as a vehicle, which, as defined by the ink industry, is any media that acts as a solvent, carrier, or binder for pigments to the substrate. Developed by the American Newspaper Publishers Association in response to the oil shocks of the 1970's, soybean oil-based inks were first marketed in 1987. Since then, soybean oil has been incorporated into a number of ink formulations. The amount of soybean oil used varies among manufacturers and types of ink. For an ink manufacturer to claim its product is soy ink, soybean oil must make up a minimum percent of the ink's total formula weight (table 4). Newer formulations have higher amounts of soybean oil; for example, some black news inks contain up to 75 percent soy oil. The newspaper industry is a large user of soy inks. Soy inks account for more than 90 percent of all colored inks and about one-third of black inks used by U.S. newspapers. Soy inks produce better colors and provide greater clarity with reduced rub-off on readers' hands. The lighter color of soybean oil makes it ideal for color inks because the true color of the pigments can show through. Newspaper pictures are composed ofa pattern of dots, which with petroleum-based inks increase in size during the press run, reducing the clarity of the picture. With soy inks, the dots remain relatively the same size, keeping picture clarity constant throughout the press run. Moreover,soy inks can be used for printing newspapers without a change in equipment or printing methods. Soy ink has been found to be a better carrier of pigments, driers, and other agents than other ink vehicles, which can result in less press time, lower cost, and higher quality results. Color soy inks have taken over much of the market not only because of their superior properties, but also due to their competitive price. Color inks contain less oil, and prices are based primarily on the cost of the pigments. On the other hand, the price of black inks, which are 70 to 80 percent oil, is driven by the cost of the vehicle oil. Currently, the price of refined soybean oil is higher than that for petroleum-based mineral oil, making black soy inks more expensive than their conventional counterparts. (See the June 1993 issue of this report for more information on soy ink development.) The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has patented a 100-percent vegetable oil ink that replaces the petroleum-based vehicle and resins used in conventional inks with vegetable oil derivatives. The ARS formulation represents an improvement over most soy oil inks that replaced only the mineral oil carrier with soy oil, but not the resins. USDA issued its first license on the patent in 1992 to Franks Research Laboratories, Inc., of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, giving the company the right to make ink products for sale in five states. The Department continues to explore other licensing opportunities. ARS scientists also developed sheet-fed and heat-setinks containing up to 60 percent soybean oil by eliminating the petroleum oil and resin. Patents are pending for these technologies. In addition to their other attributes, soy inks are more environmentally friendly than traditional petroleum-based inks. Soy inks can help improve air quality since they emit almost no volatile organic compounds (VOC's) into the air. Petroleum inks typically have VOC ratings of 25 to 40 percent, while soy ink manufacturers report VOC ratings under 10 percent, with many soy inks registered at 2 to 4 percent. Soy ink also enhances paper recycling since soy ink is easier to remove from paper pulp than petroleum-based ink, so there is less damage to pulp fibers during deinking. Finally, soy inks are more biodegradable than petroleum-based inks. In a study to test the biodegradabilityof various inks, ARS scientists found that 90 percent of USDA's 100-percent vegetable oil inks biodegraded, compared with 60 percent for regular soy-based formulations that contain about 30-percent vegetable oil and 20-percent biodegradation for petroleum-based inks. All inks, including the 100-percent vegetable oil formulations, utilize pigments, which are derived from either petrochemicals or metallic oxides, that preclude complete biodegradability. According to the National Soy Information Center, the use of soybean oil in printing inks grew nearly 27 percent between 1994 and 1995, from 46 million pounds to 58.2 million pounds. However, industry analysts suggest that growth in U.S. vegetable oil-based inks will begin to flatten out, primarily because most of the environmentally proactive users have already switched from petroleum-based inks and demand will stay constant. In contrast, interest is expanding overseas. For example, soy inks are being tested in the Asian market. South Korea's two largest newspapers are using and actively promoting soy ink. Major newspapers in both Japan and Taiwan are considering making the switch to soy. Soybean Solvents Are Cleaning Up A new soy-based industrial solvent, now being marketed by several companies, is a direct substitute for petroleum distillate as a cleaner and carrying agent. Soy solvents help cut grease, oil, tar, hydrocarbons, and a variety of oil-based paints and rubber compounds. Other benefits of using soy solvents are that they have no harsh fumes or unpleasant odors, they do not irritate skin, and they are recyclable. Using USB funding, Cyto Culture International, Inc., of Point Richmond, California, has developed a process that uses methyl soyate to clean up oil spills. The solvent is sprayed on sand and contaminated rocks, and the oil is separated and recovered by conventional skimming technology. In many cases, more than 90 percent of the oil can be removed by the soy solvent. The remaining crude oil then biodegrades more quickly after exposure to the methyl soyate. This new method is far less expensive than older methods of cleaning oil spills that usually require high transport and storage costs of moving the soiled sand to a landfill. In 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency listed the product and process for use as a surface cleaning agent. Promising Research in Soy-Based Lubricants USB is funding research on soy-based lubricants with the goal of commercial use in 3 to 5 years. Soybean oil is biodegradable, which gives it an advantage over petroleum lubricants in instances where the lubricant is lost into the environment and may contaminate water supplies. Soybean oil also protects metal better than petroleum lubricants and costs less than canola or industrial rapeseed oils, which are already being used in lubricant formulations. However, soybean oil has technical and economic barriers to overcome before commercial use is feasible. The oil gels up under pressure and high temperatures. Researchers at the University of Delaware may alleviate these performance problems by using oils from genetically modified soybeans. Also, soybean oil is more expensive than petroleum lubricants, which will relegate soy-based lubricants to niche markets where users would be willing to pay a price premium. Developing commercially viable soy-based lubricants is primarily focused on hydraulic fluids, crankcase oils, and total-loss lubricants. A niche market for biodegradable hydraulic fluids has already formed in Europe, where many localities ban the use of nondegradable hydraulic fluid to protect water supplies. Industry analysts expect similar requirements to reach the United States sometime in the near future. A prototype biodegradable, soy-based hydraulic fluid has passed year-long development tests at the University of Northern Iowa's Agricultural-Based Industrial Lubricants Research Program and is ready for market introduction. Scientists at Agro Management Group, Inc., of Colorado Springs, Colorado, are testing soybean oil in conjunction with canola oil in the crankcases of small engines, such as lawnmowers and snowblowers. Renewable Lubricants of Hartville, Ohio, is researching the use of soybean oil as a crankcase lubricant in automobile engines. Soybean oil-based lubricants also can filla need in situations where oils and greases are routinely lost into sensitive environmental areas. These include uses in railroads and offshore-drilling equipment. Soy lubricants are also safer for workers in industrial situations like metal-working factories where workers are exposed to fumes from quenching and cutting oils. International Lubricants, Inc., of Seattle, Washington,is evaluating soy-based total-loss lubricants. Total-loss lubricants, which include oil for lawnmowers and other machines with two-cycle engines, drop directly to the ground or water through normal use. Omni Tech International of Midland, Michigan, estimates that certain crankcase oils and hydraulic fluids made with soybean oil could be on the market in 2 to 3 years. The company expects soy-based lubricants will eventually capture 10 to 15 percent of the lubricants market. Creative Efforts of Students Result in New Uses Professional researchers have not been the only ones in recent years investigating new uses for soybeans. Other innovative uses have been developed by students. Two Purdue University students developed a soy-based fire-starter log. The log is a flat, brownish bar made from sawdust and fully hydrogenated soybean oil under pressure. Two commercial companies have expressed interest in the product. Other student projects at Purdue have found ways to substitute hydrogenated soybean oil for paraffin, a petroleum-based wax. The first project developed a set of soy-based crayons. The crayons, which are 80-percent soybean oil, are nontoxic and washable. Already in commercial production, soy-based crayons could require the oil from up to 200 tons of soybeans a year. The market for crayons is large, about 2 billion annually. Another group created birthday candles, made with edible wax. The candles are 83-percent hydrogenated soybean oil and come in seven flavors. The candles reportedly drip less and burn an average of 25 seconds longer with a shorter flame than paraffin birthday candles. [Jacqueline Salsgiver, ERS, (202) 501-7107, jsalsgiv@econ.ag.gov] Natural Fibers Straw and Kenaf Make Inroads in Building Materials and Paper In the United States, composite building materials are being made from straw. Straw bales are being used in the construction of buildings. Researchers are investigating straw as a raw material for paper. Uses of kenaf continue to expand. Numerous companies are producing and selling kenaf-based products. Straw is the stalk of the plant that remains after the harvest of grains, such as wheat and rice. Most straw is incorporated back into the soil, used for animal bedding, or burned in the field. However, concern about straw burning and high wood prices has prompted interest in alternative uses of straw. Technological improvements in baling, collecting, and transporting straw during the last few decades also have made off-farm uses more economical. For example, modern balers can produce various-sized bales, with the larger sizes weighing up to a ton. A few companies in the United States have begun using straw to make composite building materials. Straw bales also are being used directly in the construction of homes and other structures as walls and insulation. Its use in paper is being investigatedin the United States by government and private researchers. Straw Is Produced in Many U.S. Regions Numerous types of straw are available throughout the United States as residues of grain production. Most is wheat and rice, but barley, oats, rye, and grass straws also are found in some areas of the country. The amount of straw available for off-farm uses varies. How much can be removed from a field depends onthe soil type and field topography. In many instances, some straw must be incorporated back into the soil to maintain soil quality and reduce wind and water erosion. Also, farmers may use someor all of their straw on-farm for livestock bedding or other uses. Data on straw production or the amount used off-farm are not available. However, researchers have developed techniques to estimate crop residue production, including straw, and, in some instances, the percentage that can be harvested without harming soil productivity. For example, about 78.5 million tons of wheat and rice were produced on average during 1990-96 in the United States (table 5). About 123 million tons of straw was produced annually as a byproduct during the same period. North Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Washington were the leading wheat growing states, while Arkansas and California were top in rice production. In these and other major growing areas, an estimated 51 million tons out of the 101 million tons of straw produced annually could have been harvested without lasting damage to the soil. These estimates do not take into account on-farm uses,nor whether local production was concentrated enough to make straw collection and transportation feasible. Because straw is bulky, the distance to which straw bales can be economically transported is limited. Companies using straw asa manufacturing input must decide on plant location, collection methods, and type and location of storage facilities, among other business decisions. In California, finding off-farm uses for rice straw is becoming more important as the mandated phasedown in agricultural burning in the Sacramento Valley continues. Burning has been the standard method for clearing rice fields and disposing of the straw. However, public complaints about the effects of burning on visibility and air quality led to the passage of the Rice Straw Burning Reduction Act of 1991. The law phases down the yearly amount of rice straw that can be burned in the Sacramento Valley Air Basin from 90 percent of planted rice acreage in 1992 to 25 percent in 1998-99. In 1996, farmers burned 45.7 percent of their rice acreage (figure 6), slightly below the 50-percent level mandated by the act. To foster off-farm uses, the California Legislature passed a law in 1996 authorizing a yearly tax credit of up to $400,000 for 11 years for firms using rice straw. Businesses can claim a $15-credit for every ton of rice straw used in products and services. In 1991, legislators in Oregon also passed a law phasing down field burning of grass-seed and cereal-grain straw in the Willamette Valley from 180,000 acres in 1991 to 40,000 acres in 1998 and thereafter. The law also authorizes state funds and burning fees be used for research and development to find alternative methods of field sanitization and uses of straw. Companies Are Making Composite Panels from Straw A process for producing compressed straw panels was invented in the 1930's and was used to a limited extent in Europe, Canada, and Australia in the intervening decades. Only in the last couple of years have companies in the United States started manufacturing structural and nonstructural panels and composite products made from straw. For example, Agriboard Industries, based in Fairfield, Iowa, and Coppell, Texas, began producing compressed straw panels in February 1997 at its Electra, Texas, manufacturing facility. Farmers bale straw into 1,000-pound bales, which are shipped to the factory and stored for use. The company estimates that it will initially use about 13,000 tons of straw annually and at full capacity, up to 40,000 tons per year. A 240-foot long linear extrusion mill separates wheat or rice straw into loose strands, compresses it under intense heat, and fuses it into 3-inch thick strawboard. No chemical binders are added. Straw fibers, when compressed under high temperatures, bond together without any adhesive. For structural applications, the strawboard is then laminated between oriented-strand board to form a stress-skin panel. Stress-skin-panel building systems, usually made with synthetic extruded polystyrene foam or paper as the core material, have become popular in applications where their high insulative properties are desired. Agriboard's panels have undergone testing by the National Association of Homebuilders Research Foundation and other testing agencies to demonstrate their fire resistance, acoustical properties, and structural and thermal performance. The company is supplying panels for several construction projects across the country, including a large retail store in Chicago, Illinois, and 200- and 300-unit apartment complexes in Austin, Texas. The company plans to open plants in California and Ohio within the next 18 months. Other straw panel manufacturers are due to come on line in 1997. BioFab, LLC, of Redding, California, is now marketing imported prototype strawboard panels, and is planning a full-scale production facility to come on line this fall in California's Sacramento Valley. The panels are formed through an extrusion process under heat and pressure, using 100-percent rice straw and no chemical additives. The company offers two products for interior and nonload-bearing applications: o A decorative acoustical ceiling/wall panel, which looks likea thatched ceiling, and o A nonstructural panel covered with recycled-content linerboard, which is sold as a replacement for gypsum-board drywall and wood studs. Pierce International of Englewood, Colorado, and Stramtech of Rupert, Idaho, are planning to open a production facility in Rupert this fall. Construction is underway. A similar facility in Virginia's eastern shore is scheduled to open in the fall of 1998. Once in operation, these plants will compress straw under heat and pressure in an extrusion process to produce straw panels. Plants in Europe and Australia have been using the same technology to manufacture straw panels since the late 1940's. The panels will be used for interior and nonload-bearing walls and partitions. Cereal straws are also being used for the production of particleboard and plywood substitutes. For instance, PrimeBoard, Inc., is making an industrial-grade particleboard from wheat straw at its new $15-million plant in Wahpeton, North Dakota, which opened in August 1995. The particleboard is made from wheat straw and a formaldehyde-free binder made from methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). The absence of urea formaldehyde,a common substance in wood particleboard, is seen as a plus because formaldehyde-containing adhesives give off toxic fumes. PrimeBoard's composite panel has been independently tested and mill certified to meet or exceed all specifications for industrial-grade particleboard and can be used in the same applications as wood particleboard. One of PrimeBoard's primary customers is PrimeWood, Inc., a kitchen cabinet/furniture/architectural millwork component manufacturer also located in Wahpeton. A major impetus for forming PrimeBoard came from PrimeWood's concern about long-term supplies of wood for building materials. Naturall Fibre Boards, LC, of Minneapolis, Kansas, began manufacturing strawboard on a limited scale in June 1995. The equipment chops up the straw, mixes it with a MDI resin, and presses it into panels. A new press is on order for deliveryin 1998 that will increase production eight-fold. The panels are being marketed as floor underlay (a material that is often under carpeting, vinyl flooring, and other floor coverings). According to the company, the panels meet the requirements for fiberboard and particleboard underlay and comply with all building codes. Eleven farmer cooperatives in central Kansas formed CenKan Enterprises to produce straw-based particleboard. The manufacturing facility in Hutchinson, Kansas, is scheduled to come on line this summer. The production system was purchased from a British firm, which is marketing the technology worldwide. As with similar systems, chopped straw is mixed with a MDI binder and pressed into panels. CenKan has signed a 5-year contract with a Canadian-based distributor to market the straw-based particleboard in ready-to-assemble furniture applications in the United States. These companies are just a few examples of the firms that are using straw or are planning straw-based enterprises in the near future. According to an analysis of alternative construction materials made from cellulosic wastes (straw, urban wood waste, and recycled paper) by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, the short-term acceptance of alternative building systems or products depends not only on customer acceptance but also on whether the systems comply with building codes. Construction products made from cellulosic sources will likely have the most success when used with pre-existing construction techniques (8). Straw Bales Are Used Directly in Construction In addition to using straw to manufacture building materials, straw bales are being used directly in construction. The bales are used to make the walls of houses, garages, storage sheds, and other structures. Two types of smaller bales are used: o Two-string bales, which are roughly 35-40 inches long, 18 inches wide, and 14 inches high and tied together withtwo pieces of polypropylene twine, or o Three-string bales, which are usually 32-47 inches long, 23-24 inches wide, and 14-17 inches high and tied together withthree pieces of polypropylene twine. Any type of straw can be used. Bale size, density,and the number of strings will vary with the type of straw andthe type of baler used. Bale walls can be built on top of any type of foundation, and can be load-bearing or used as infill with post-and-beam construction. If the walls are load-bearing, which means they are the structural support for the roof, the bales are stacked in staggered courses like big bricks, then rebar (steel reinforcement bars used in concrete structures), bamboo, or wooden dowels are driven down through the bales for vertical reinforcement. Load-bearing structures are usually one-story, square, or rectangular buildings. With post-and-beam construction, a wood, metal, or masonry structural frame supports the roof, and bales are stacked in between the posts to make the walls. Post-and-beam construction offers greater flexibility than load-bearing designs, allowing for a wider variety of floor plans, roof designs, and building heights. Hybrid systems, with some load-bearing walls and some post and beam, also exist. As one of the final steps in construction, the walls are covered with some sort of finish. Commonly, stucco is applied to the exterior and plaster to the interior, although various other wall finishes have been used. In the United States, building with bales can be traced to the Sand Hills of Nebraska around the turn of the century. Few trees were available for timber, and the soil was too sandy for sod homes. The advent of baling equipment allowed settlers to use prairie hay as a building material. From about 1890 to 1935, bales were used to build load-bearing homes, farm buildings, churches, schools, offices, and grocery stores. Recent interest in straw bale construction began in the late 1970's after an article by a Nebraska historian on the bale homes in that state was published in 1974. Using straw bales appeals to future home owners, architects, and builders who are concerned about the impact of traditional building systems on the world's resources. They view straw as an abundant renewable resource. In the southwestern United States, straw bales also were found to be a cheap substitute for labor-intensive double-wall adobe. One facet of straw bale building often mentioned in the popular press is its affordability. However, walls typically represent only 15 to 20 percent of the overall cost of most houses, and building costs can vary depending on the climate, the characteristics of the site, building-code and permit requirements, and labor and raw-material costs. Using salvaged materials and labor donated by the owner/builder, friends, relatives, and straw bale workshop participants are frequently mentioned as ways owner/builders can reduce construction costs. Structures built by architects and contractors are only marginally less expensive than conventional construction, given that labor accounts for 60 percent of the cost of a contracted home (6). Nevertheless, lower energy and maintenance costs over the life of the structure are often cited as a benefit of straw bale buildings. Straw Bale Buildings Can Be Found in Many Locations All types of buildings have been erected with straw homes, cabins, storage sheds, barns, and other out buildings. Initially, most structures were built in rural areas, where complying with building codes was not a problem. The first straw bale house to have a building permit was constructed in Tesuque, New Mexico, in 1991. This post-and-beam structure was considered a breakthrough by the industry, as it was the first permitted, contractor-built, bank-financed, straw bale house in the United States (4). The first load-bearing house to receive a building permit was constructed in Tucson, Arizona, in 1993. Approval was made possible as the result of structural tests conducted at the University of Arizona, in cooperation with city and county building officials (5). Since then, load-bearing houses have been approved in other Arizona jurisdictions, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Oregon, and Washington State. An estimated 20 states have straw bale structures built with building permits and another 23 have straw bale buildings erected since 1940 (figure 7). Applying for and receiving building permits is a local process. Unlike Canada and most European countries, the United States does not have a national building code. Building codes are usually adopted as municipal or county ordinances or by state legislatures in the case of statewide codes. These codes often are based on one of three model building codes: o the Uniform Building Code, which is common west of the Mississippi River, o the Basic Building Code, which is used primarily in the Northeast and Midwest, and o the Standard Building Code, which is usually found in the Southeast (3). All three model codes contain sections that address the use of alternative building materials, such as straw bale, adobe, and rammed earth. Building officials may approve any such alternative, provided that the proposed design of the structure is satisfactory and complies with the provisions of the local code and that the material is, for the purpose intended, at least equivalent to that prescribed in the code in terms of suitability, strength, effectiveness, fire resistance, durability, safety, and sanitation (3). A few jurisdictions have approved building codes specifically for straw bale construction. In January 1996, New Mexico adoptedthe post-and-beam code that the state had been using as guidelines to issue building permits. Also, in January 1996, the City of Tucson and Pima County, Arizona, adopted standards for load-bearingand nonload-bearing straw bale construction. In the fall of 1995, the California legislature enacted a bill, which became effective January 1, 1996, that amends the state building standards law to establish safety guidelines for the construction of structures that use baled rice straw as a load-bearingor nonload-bearing material. California cities and counties must adopt the guidelines for them to become part of local building codes. Individual jurisdictions may modify the guidelines as deemed necessary. Several counties, including Glenn, Napa, Trinity, and Yolo, have adopted the straw bale guidelines as part of their building codes. Also in 1995, a law was passed in Nevada specifying that local jurisdictions amend their building codes to permit the use of straw and other materials that are renewable or conserve scarce natural resources. Bale Wall Systems Have Various Attributes One of the most often cited benefits of building with straw bales is the increased insulation the thick bales provide. Resultsof two studies conducted in 1993 and 1994 indicate that straw bales have an average R-value (resistance to heat flow) of 2.5 to 3 per inch, compared with 1 for wood, 0.2 for brick, and 3 for fiberglass batts. Thus, depending on the thickness of the bale, R-values can range from 35 to 55. Plaster, stucco, or other finishes also can add to the R-value of completed walls. While loose straw burns, once it is packed into bales it is remarkably fire resistant. The dense bales limit the oxygen available for combustion. Fire-resistance tests were conducted in December 1993 for New Mexico on test straw bale walls. A 1994 report from the New Mexico State Construction Industries Division on straw bale construction states that the results of the fire- resistance tests demonstrate that a straw bale infill wall assembly is a far greater fire-resistive assembly than a wood frame wall assembly using the same finishes. Moisture is a concern with straw bale buildings as it is with wood structures. Fungus (dry rot) can occur in straw at humidity levels above 20 percent of the dry weight. However, for significant damage to occur, these humidity levels must be maintained over a period of time. To keep obvious sources of moisture at bay, those familiar with straw bale construction recommend that the bales be elevated above the surrounding soil and a moisture barrier used in areas subject to direct wetting. Historical experience suggests that the best way to avoid sustained high-moisture concentrations is to permit finished bales to transpire any accumulated moisture back into the environment. Common finishes, like lime and adobe plaster and cement stucco, do allow vapor transmission. More Testing Needed on Straw Bale Construction For straw bale construction to become more widely accepted, particularly by building code officials, more research and testing is needed on topics such as building methods and parameters and long-term durability in various climates. Some testing has been done in the last few years. For example, structural and thermal tests have been performed in Tucson, Arizona, and fire, wind-loading, and compression tests have been conducted by a certified laboratory in Sante Fe, New Mexico. In addition, during the early 1990's, the Navajo Nation, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, initiated a search for more energy-efficient, affordable housing that could be built on the reservation with local materials and would fit the Navajo lifestyle. The result was a demonstration home, using a combination of adobe walls and load-bearing straw bale walls, constructed near Ganado, Arizona. On behalf of DOE, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory analyzed the thermal characteristics of the various wall materials and projected energy savings for the prototype home. In its final report, the laboratory concluded that straw bale building offered the best energy performance of any of the new construction types being considered, with a 15-percent improvement in overall building energy efficiency in heating for the climates on the Navajo reservation. In 1995, the City of Tucson's Community Services Department was awarded a $73,000 grant to measure and evaluate the affordability and energy efficiency of straw bale housing and site/resource utilization. The funding came from DOE and was administered by the Urban Consortium Energy Task Force. In 1996, Habitat for Humanity Tucson and the Tucson Urban League, in conjunction with the city, each built a straw bale house on city-owned land. The buildings were designed for low-energy and resource use and will be monitored for energy use for a minimum of 1 year. The structures, now private homes, are open to the public on a limited basis for 1 year for educational and informational purposes. The information gathered during construction and monitoring of the two houses will be documented and analyzed to determine costs and energy and resource savings. The nonprofit Aprovecho Research Center of Cottage Grove, Oregon, will soon complete a 2-story straw bale dormitory. The post-and-beam structure complies with Lane County Building Codes and has 350 rye grass straw bales as infill. Part of the funding forthe project came from the Oregon Department of Agriculture for construction of a straw-bale home that could be studied for practicality and durability. A portion of the money, from a state fund for finding alternatives to burning straw on Willamette Valley grass-seed fields, goes to the university for monitoring the dormitory with moisture-detecting sensors imbedded in the walls. Other Countries Are Using Straw for Paper and Paperboard During the 1800's, straw was widely used in the United States and other countries to make paper and paperboard, but the advent of wood pulping technology in the mid-1800's displaced straw from many paper grades. Straw pulping for paperboard continued to expand and peaked in the 1940's. During the next couple of decades, demand for paperboard increased substantially as corrugated cardboard boxes began to displace wooden crates as packing and shipping containers. However, declining economic returns caused many paperboard manufacturers to switch from straw to hardwoods and waste paper. The last U.S. mills stopped using straw in the 1960's. Nevertheless, cereal straws and other nonwood fibers continue to be important in many countries where supplies of pulpwood are limited. In developing countries, many of which are located in areas with limited forest resources, nonwood fibers accounted for about 35 percent of the raw materials used for pulp production during the 1990's. In contrast, during the 1990's, nonwood fibers made up less than 0.5 percent of pulp production in developed countries, which often have greater forest resources. In 1995, nonwood fibers accounted for 7 percent of total world pulp production, up from roughly 4 percent in the 1970's and early 1980's (figure 8). Straw, sugar cane bagasse, and bamboo are the leading nonwood fibers countries use for general paper production (table 6). Other nonwood fibers, such as abaca and sisal, have unique characteristics and are used in specialty applications. China and India are major producers of nonwood fibers (table 7). As for straw, China accounted for 88 percent of straw pulp capacity in 1993, with another 22 countries holding the remainder (2). For straw to again become a raw material for paper and paperboard in the United States, industry experts cite a number of issues that must be addressed: o Certainty of supply over the long run at a competitive price. For an industry accustomed to using trees, relying ona byproduct of annual grain production raises concerns about availabilityand price. o Raw material bulkiness. Straw is bulky, which means collection, transportation, and storage costs will behigher than for wood over similar distances. Pulping proceduresalso must be adjusted to account for straw's bulkiness. o Extended storage. After harvest, straw must be collectedand stored for year-around availability, without significantdeterioration of fiber quality. o Silica content. (Silica is a common mineral; its mostfamiliar form is sand.) Depending on the type, straw can contain 4- to 15-percentsilica, which interferes with conventional recovery of pulping chemicals. o Pulp drainage characteristics. Straw pulp contains highamounts of hort fibers (less than 1 millimeter in length) and hemicellulose,which combine to slow the drainage of water from the pulp. Fast drainage is importantwhen using high-speed papermaking machines, whichhave been key in increasing industry productivity. A few universities and other organizations are researching the feasibility of using straw for paper and paperboard. For example, Weyerhaeuser Company, Oregon State University, and the Oregon Department of Agriculture initiated a project in 1993 to investigate new technologies for processing ryegrass straw. The project has progressed to tests in a 50-tons-per-day pilot plant using a steam-explosion process. The straw pulp would be used with wood pulp to make linerboard for corrugated containers. Also, the University of Washington and Washington State University are cooperating on a project to assess pulping options for wheat straw and to select wheat varieties with improved fiber properties. The project hopes to receive a grant to assess the feasibility of a straw pulp mill in eastern Washington. University of Minnesota researchers are working with Blandin Paper Company of Grand Rapids, Minnesota, and local wheat and barley growers to investigate the use of straw for paper. In preliminary tests, researchers found that mixing straw and wood pulps yielded the same type and quality of paper Blandin was making for glossy newspaper inserts. Up to 30 percent of straw pulp could be used without a loss in quality. The group is now planning to conduct a feasibility study of producing straw from farmer-owned mills in the upper Midwest. One company, Arbokem of Vancouver, Canada, is already producing limited amounts of straw pulp. It's demonstration-scale pulp mill in Vulcan, Alberta, can make up to 2,000 tons of pulp per year using a proprietary potassium-based process. The company plans to build a rice straw-based pulp mill in California's Sacramento Valley. In collaboration with different paper mills, the company has produced various grades of paper for test commercial sale, principally in California. Its white photocopy paper is made from 45-percent wheat straw, 43-percent post-consumerrecycled paper, and 12-percent calcium carbonate. Kenaf Production and Products Continue To Expand Development and commercialization of kenaf and various kenaf-based products in the United States have been ongoing since the 1940's. Researchand development efforts, initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture(USDA) when U.S. jute imports were interrupted during World War II, receiveda boost in the 1950's when researchers identified kenaf as the most promisingnonwood fiber for pulp and paper making. More recent USDA research andindustry interest was triggered by high newsprint prices in the late 1970's. Like jute and flax, kenaf stems consist of two distinct fibers. The outer bark of bast fibers comprises 30 to 40 percent of the total dry weight of the stalk. The inner core of short balsa-wood-like fibers accounts for the remainder. Kenaf can be grown in many parts of the United States and the world, but it generally needs a long growing season to produce the necessary yield to make it a profitable crop. With a long growing season, like that found in the southern United States, kenaf can reach a height of 12 to 18 feet and produce 5 to 10 tons of dry fiber per acre annually. An estimated 8,000 acresof kenaf currently are being grown in the United States (1), up from roughly 4,000 acres in 1992 and 1993 (see the June and December 1993 issues of this report). Primary production areas are Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, Delaware, and Louisiana. Numerous companies are producing and selling kenaf-based products. Kenaf International, headquartered in McAllen, Texas, has been producing kenaf since 1981 (1). The kenaf is grown in southern Texas and processed locally to separate the bast and core fibers. The fibers are used in moldable fiber mats and oil-absorbent pillows for cleaning up oil spills. The fiber mats, which are made from the bast fibers, are being used in European automobiles as interior door panels. The company also is evaluating other products that can be made from the bast and core fibers. Company President, Charles Taylor, has identified many current and potential types of kenaf-based products, including: o Pulp, paper, and paperboard produced by wet processing; o Fiberboard produced by dry processing using moldable fibermats; o Absorbing media; o Packing materials; o Composite products; o Livestock forage and feed; and o Traditional cordage uses. In February 1997, Canadian-based Kafus Capital Corporation announced that its subsidiary, Kenaf Paper Manufacturing (KPM), had acquired an option to purchase 50 acres of land in Willacy County, Texas, on which the company plans to construct a newsprint mill (7). The facility will be the first commercial pulp mill in North America to use whole-stalk kenaf as its sole fiber source. The announcement indicated that KPM is in the final stages of concluding long-term sales agreements for its newsprint with leading newspaper publishers, primarily in Texas. Newspapers reportedly are interested in newsprint from kenaf because it has the potential to be an additional source of newsprint at a reasonable price. Long-term contracts for supplying kenaf fiber also are expected soon with Kenaf International, which is a minority owner of KPM. The KPM plant is estimated to cost slightly over $100 million to build and will be capable of producing between 70,000 and 90,000 tons of high-quality newsprint annually. Although this plantis somewhat smaller than most conventional newsprint facilities constructed in North America during the past 10 years, the company claims it is designed to be one of the lowest cost producers of newsprint on the continent. First Farm Fibers, a Delaware-based corporation comprised of farmers and investors, and researchers from the University of Delaware have worked with Curtis Paper Mill, a division of James River Paper, in Newark, Delaware, to produce kenaf paper, which can be bleached or unbleached, coated or uncoated. They also have collaborated with Crane Paper Company of Dalton, Massachusetts. Crane, looking for ways to expand market options, has placed an order for 10 tons of kenaf fiber to be used in its fine stationery. In 1996, First Farm Fibers contracted with farmers to produce 250 acres of kenaf in Delaware, and has 750 acres under contract this year. Another commercial producer of kenaf paper is KP Products of Albuquerque, New Mexico. According to the company, kenaf paper is stronger, whiter, longer lasting, more resistant to yellowing, and has better ink adherence than wood-based paper. The firmhas produced about 200 tons of kenaf-based paper since 1992. Examples of other businesses that sell kenaf-based paper products and the types of items they offer include: o Acorn Design, stationery sets; o Dancing Kenafs, kenaf spiral journals; o Don Mickey Designs, letterhead stationery, envelopes, and business cards; o Eco Specialties, specialty advertising products; o Everything Earthly, notepads, writing tablets, and envelope sets; o Grass Roots Paper Company, soft-covered journal paper; o Okina Sales, spiral notebooks; o Simple Thoughts, coloring books and calendars; and o Soundings of the Planet, cassette tape and compact disk inserts and posters. Ankal, Inc., based in Atlanta, Georgia, also has developed technology to separate the bast and core fibers. The primary product advertised by the firm is a kenaf-core-based cat litter, which is described as biodegradable, dust free, and environmentally friendly. Other products mentioned in company literature, but not advertised for sale, include kenaf paper, building materials, pressure sensitive labels, and pelletized fiber and feed. During the early 1990's, the Mississippi Delta Fiber Cooperative of Charleston, Mississippi, attempted to produce 2,000 to 3,000 acres of kenaf annually. However, due to various problems, much of the crop was not harvested and, in 1995, the business was taken over by Lumus Gin Company. About 1,600 acres were grownin 1996. The company hopes to produce about the same volume of kenaf this year on less, but more productive, land. Kenaf Research Also Continues While significant progress has been made on commercialization of kenaf, much research and development remains to be accomplished before kenaf becomes a major U.S. crop. The largest and most comprehensive U.S. research effort on kenaf is located at Mississippi State University (MSU). MSU has had over 20 scientists from more than 15 disciplines evaluating various aspects of kenaf, including product development. Much of the financial support was Federal funding provided through USDA's Agricultural Research Service, but this funding is being phased out in 1997. The types of research MSU staff have been conducting include: o Varietal selection and breeding; o Evaluating planting date, row spacing, plant density, and other yield determinants; o Production practices; o Control of nematodes and other kenaf pests; o Fertility; o Weed control; o Plant desiccation for harvest; o In-field separation of fibers; o Economic analysis of fiber separation; o Using kenaf as bedding for horses, broilers, and laboratory animals; o Evaluating kenaf as an oil sorbent; o Kenaf core as a bioremediation enhancer, a feedstock for composite materials, and a component in landscape andgreenhouse bedding media; and o Use as a textile fiber, including processing, fiber characteristics, and product development. University of Delaware researchers have been evaluating kenaf as an alternative crop for their area. Farmers like to use kenafin rotation with soybeans because it helps to break the life cycle of the soybean cyst nematode. In addition to on-going kenaf production research, scientists are conducting product development work such as using kenaf fibers in composite materials and kenaf core in cat litter, animal bedding, and as a growing medium for plants. [Straw: Lewrene Glaser, ERS,(202) 219-0091, lkglaser@econ.ag.gov. Kenaf: Donald Van Dyne, University of Missouri, (573) 882-0141, ssvandyn@muccmail.missouri.edu] 1. Associated Press, "Kenaf Could Be First New ProfitableCrop for Rice Belt Since Soybeans," May 31, 1997. 2. Atchison, Joseph, "Present Status and Future Prospectsfor Use of Non-Wood Plant Fibers for Paper GradePulps," paper presented at the AF&PA 1994 Pulp and FiberFall Seminar, Tucson, AZ, November 14-16, 1994. 3. Eisenberg, David, "Building Codes, Straw-Bale Construction, and You," The Last Straw, No. 5, Tucson,AZ, Winter 1994, pp. 23-25, 30. 4. Eisenberg, David, "The Land of Enchantment: Fertile Ground for the Straw-Bale Revival," The Last Straw,No. 7, Tucson, AZ, Summer 1994, pp. 1, 5-9. 5. Eisenberg, David, Straw Bale Construction and the Building Codes, Development Center for AppropriateTechnology, Tucson, AZ, April 1995, 26 pp. 6. Hofmeister, Richard, "Plastered Straw-Bale Construction:A Renewable Resource for Energy-Efficient, Self-HelpHousing," Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture, Washington, DC, 1994, pp. 38-47. 7. Kafus Capital Corporation, press releases, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 15, 1996, andFebruary 24, 1997. 8. Lorenz, David, A New Industry Emerges: Making Construction Materials From Cellulosic Wastes, Institutefor Local Self-Reliance, Minneapolis, MN, June 1995, 13 pp. Special Article Crambe Production and Processing: A Case Study of the Effectson Rural Areas in North Dakota by Jacqueline Salsgiver 1/ Abstract: Crambe is a new industrial oilseed being grown in North Dakota. An input-output model was used in this analysisto estimate the economic effects of crambe production, the construction of an oilseed processing plant to handle the crop, and the crushing of the crop in a 15-county region in central North Dakota. The results indicate that an estimated gain of nearly $10 million in total sales and 42 new wage and salary jobs will be added to the region as a direct result of the increase in the production and processing of the 1997 crambe crop. Through local purchases of supplies and the spending of crambe-related income, the industry will generate an estimated additional $2.8 million in total sales and 46 wage and salary jobs. Buildingthe plant added an estimated 46 temporary construction positions in the region, which generated an estimated increase of $2.2 million in sales and another 40 jobs in various industries as the workers spent their wages. Keywords: Crambe, North Dakota, industrial crops, oilseed processing, regional development. Over the last 10 to 15 years, a few new industrial crops have been developed in the United States and are now under commercial production. Kenaf, an annual fiber crop, is being produced in the southern regions of this country. Two new industrial oilseeds, crambe and meadowfoam, are grown in North Dakota and Oregon, respectively. 1/ Salsgiver is an agricultural economist with ERS, (202) 501-7107, jsalsgiv@econ.ag.gov. The development, commercialization, and adoption of new crops can provide farmers with additional cropping options. Crop diversification can minimize the risk of uncertain markets and production problems, such as adverse weather conditions and disease outbreaks. Some new crops may fill a rotational need that has multiyear benefits. For example, farmers in North Dakota prefer to use crambe as a broadleaf crop in rotation with small grains because it does not have the insect problems often seen with canola and sunflowers, yet it is not susceptible to the weeds and diseases plaguing small grains. Another example is meadowfoam, which has given farmers in Oregon's Willamette Valley an alternative crop when grass-seed production is no longer viable due to weed problems or other reasons. Potential Rural Impacts of New Industrial Crops Although these new crops may bring about only marginal changes in farm income and agricultural output at the national level, they may have a greater impact at the local level. The development and commercialization of new industrial crops can affect rural economies in several important ways. First, farm income could rise as a result of new crop opportunities. Second, if farm production increases, the level of inputs, transportation, and storage may increase. Jobs in farm-related industries could be created, such as in processing the raw commodities and producing products. Finally, rural employment also may rise because ofthe multiplier effects of enhanced farm income, increased demand for agricultural inputs, and the establishment or expansion of processing and manufacturing facilities that use agricultural commodities. The benefits to rural communities depend in part on the industrial mix of the community. Rural areas with a large agricultural base are likely to experience a greater impact due to changes in farm employment, income, and land values than rural areas that specialize in nonagricultural activities (2). Approximately 24 percent of all nonmetropolitan counties are classified by the Economic Research Service as farming-dependent, deriving at least 20 percent of their total labor and proprietor income from farming. Farming-dependent counties are primarily concentrated in the Great Plains, spanning from North Dakota to the Texas Panhandle. Even if a new industrial crop is produced in a nonmetropolitan area, not all the potential income and job benefits will be realized. For instance, farm employment may not change with the introduction of a new crop, particularly if it is similar to those currently produced. Also, the higher value-added benefits may not be captured in the area. A firm's decision on where to locate its processing and/or manufacturing facility is based on a region's resource base, transportation costs of the raw commodity relative to the processed product, and the availability of skilled labor. Rural areas generally have a comparative advantage over urban areas in terms of availability of natural resources, lower tax rates, and less expensive land and labor costs. However, some processing plants, particularly for those crops that are less costly to transport and store, are located in metropolitan areas. Also, some industries that use agricultural raw materials, such as the chemical and rubber industries, are located in metropolitan regions because they rely on highly skilled labor and technicians. In these situations, metropolitan areas may receive more benefits from industrial crops and products than nonmetropolitan areas (2). If the development of new industrial crops is to be used as a rural development strategy, it may be useful to develop criteria for which new crops would likely cause the greatest net gain for a region. A new crop should provide some benefit to farmers by fitting into a crop rotation, having the ability to be grown on otherwise unproductive land, or replacing a lower valued crop. Ideally, the region should also capture some of the frontward linkages of the new agricultural products, such as processing and marketing enterprises. This case study illustrates how a rural area is affected by a new industrial crop. The study looks at crambe production and processing in rural North Dakota, showing a region's success in both producing a new industrial crop and participating in the enhancement of the product. Crambe Uses and Production in North Dakota Crambe is an annual oilseed crop first introduced in the United States in 1940. Sustained commercial production began in 1990in central North Dakota. The crop is grown for its inedible oil, which contains high amounts of erucic acid, a 22-carbon fatty acid. Erucic acid is used to make intermediate chemicals, such as slip and antiblock agents, emollients, and surfactants, that are used in the manufacture of such items as plastic bags, cosmetics, personal-care products, and laundry detergents (1). Crambe oil could potentially be used in paints and coatings, nylon-1313, plastics, and hard waxes (3). Industrial rapeseed is the traditional source of erucic acid for the world market, but in the United States, crambe has begun to tap into this market. Industrial rapeseed and crambe are the only commercial sources of erucic acid (1). The United States currently imports about 40 million pounds of industrial rapeseed oil, primarily from Canada and Eastern Europe, worth about $10 million annually. A small amount of industrial rapeseed is also grown in the Pacific Northwest. The American Renewable Oil Association, an association of crambe growers, contracted with 435 producers to grow crambe on 50,000 acres in 1997, an increase of 28,000 acres from the previous year. The number of acres contracted is the estimated amount required to meet the domestic demand for crambe oil. All of the acreage is in North Dakota, with much of the production concentrated in the center of the state. In addition to crambe production, AgGrow Oils, a grower-owned company, has begun construction of an $8-million oilseed-crushing plant in Foster County, North Dakota. The plant is a full-press, mechanical processing facility that is scheduled to begin operation in November 1997 processing this year's crambe crop. The company estimates the plant will be able to handle 200 tons of seed per day at startup. The plant will process other novel oilseeds, such as high-oleic sunflower and safflower, flax, and possibly specialty canolas, as well as crambe. AgGrow Oils plans to adda refining system to the plant in subsequent years. Using an Input-Output Model To Assess Crambe's Effects To analyze the regional effects of crambe production and processing, a study area of 15 nonmetropolitan counties was defined. The study area encompasses the major crambe growing areas and the related oilseed crushing plant (figure A-1). Total population in the region is 149,000, with an average income of $40,382 per household (table A-1). Nearly 24 percent of the 86,538 jobs are in the services sector, which accounts for the largest share of the region's employment. Although agricultural employment makes up only 15 percent of regional employment, 8 of the 15 counties are considered farming-dependent. The region produces 30 percent of North Dakota's barley crop and 47 percent of the state's sunflower seeds, which is 11 percent of the Nation's barley crop and more than 26 percent of all domestically grown sunflower seeds (table A-2). The effects of crambe production and its related enterprises on the overall economy of the central North Dakota study area are estimated using a regional input-output model. Input-output provides a framework in which to collect, categorize, and analyze data on the interindustry structure and interdependencies of a region's economy. Input-output models estimate the direct, indirect, and induced impacts from a final demand change on a region. In this case study, the direct effects are the sales, employment, and value added generated directly by crambe production and the construction and operation of an oilseed processing plant. Indirect impacts are the sales, employment, and value added that result from other firms in the local economy selling to the crambe enterprises, such as the agricultural input industries, agricultural services, and wholesalers. Induced effects or impacts are the sales, employment, and value added generated from the earnings of the workers in the newly created jobs as the earnings are spent in the North Dakota study region. The analysis is performed within the framework of the 1993 Input-Output Model for Planning and Analysis (IMPLAN) Pro version. This modelprovides for county-level analysis from 528 industry sectors, similar in detailto the three-digit Standard Industrial Classification codes for most industries. The ability to assess a change in the overall economic activity of a regionas a result of some change in one or several economic activities is the appeal of using a model like IMPLAN. Estimating the Value of Crambe Production and Processing The first task in estimating the impacts of crambe on the North Dakota study region was to determine the size of the crop, its value to the growers, and the value of the processed oil and meal. First, it is assumed that 90 percent of the 50,000 contracted acres in 1997 will be harvested, i.e., a 10-percent loss will occur due to weather, disease, or other factors, which leaves 45,000 harvested acres. Multiplying 45,000 by the estimated average yield of 1,350 pounds per acre results in a total crambe crop of 60.75 million pounds. Given the contracted price of 10.1 cents per pound, the value of the crambe crop is estimated to be $6.136 million. Industry sources indicate that an 82.6-percent recovery rate of crambe oil and a 98-percent recovery rate for the meal are reasonable estimates for a mechanical processing facility like the Foster County plant. Crambe seeds contain 35 percent oil (4); therefore, there are 21.263 million pounds of oil in 60.75 million pounds of crambe seed. However, only an estimated 82.6 percent is recovered, or 17.563 million pounds of oil. Subtracting the pounds of extracted oil from the total amount of crambe seed yields 43.187 million pounds of crambe meal. Using the estimated 98-percent recovery rate, the output of crambe meal is about 42.323 million pounds. The total loss rate for crambe processing at this plant is anticipated to be 1.4 percent. Prices for crambe oil and meal are not available, so price ranges of 28 to 35 cents per pound of oil and $75 to $100 per ton of meal are used as best estimates, based on industry analysts' forecasts. Prices for crambe and industrial rapeseed oil are likely to vary within the range depending on the availability of world supplies. If supplies are adequate, prices may be in the low end of the range. However, if supplies tighten, prices may rise. The price of crambe meal is probably about one-third the price of soybean meal. Crambe meal can only be fed in limited quantities to beef cattle, as per U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulations, and feed formulators may not be familiar with it. However, mechanical processing leaves more residual oil in the meal, giving it a higher feed-energy value than meal from solvent extraction. Given the volumes cited above, the value of the crambe oil is estimated at $4.918 to $6.147 million and the meal at $1.587 to $2.116 million. The value of the two products together is $6.505 to $8.263 million. Estimating the Impact of Crambe Production The size of the impact of crambe production on the North Dakota study area is estimated under two different scenarios. The first scenario assumes the 28,000-acre increase in crambe acreage was on land not previously in crop production. The second scenario assumes the increased crambe acreage displaced another crop that would have otherwise been grown on the land. In this case, the income and employment gains from increased crambe production are offset by the loss of the foregone income and employment from the production of the crop that crambe displaced. The estimated $6.1 million sales of the 1997 crambe crop is up $2.5 million from 1996's $3.6 million crop. This $2.5-million increase was used to estimate the total economic impacts of the expansion of crambe production on the North Dakota study area under the first scenario. The growth in crambe output alone translates into direct economic impacts of $1.2 million value added and the creation of 29 new wage and salary jobs (table A-3). Value added, which includes employee compensation, proprietary income, and indirect business taxes, is a measure of the value of goods andservices produced by the crambe growers. When indirect and induced effectsare calculated and added onto the direct effects, the total economic impactsof increased crambe production are $3.6 million in total sales, $1.8 million in value added, and 48 new jobs. Under the second scenario, it is assumed the increased crambe acreage came from canola acreage. Canola was chosen as the displaced crop because it is the most profitable crop after crambe in the north central North Dakota region. The estimated net return of $83.04 per acre from crambe production in 1997 far exceeds the projections for other crops grown in the region (table A-4). Given the $44.21 net returns per acre for canola production, total sales of canola from 28,000 acres are estimated at $1.2 million. An impact analysis on canola reveals that the loss of $1.2 million in sales from canola production would reduce total sales by $1.8 million, with losses of $900,000 in total value added and 24 wage and salary jobs, including induced and indirect effects. Therefore, the gains from crambe production under this scenario are roughly half the size of those under the first scenario. The difference would be even greater if crambe were substituted for a crop less profitable than canola. Aside from crambe's profitability, farmers also benefit by having another crop to put into their crop rotations, an advantage not captured in this analysis. Assessing the Effects of the Processing Plant A similar impact analysis was performed to look at the effects on the 15-county study area from the construction of an $8-million oilseed processing plant. Of the $8-million outlay for the plant, an estimated $3.5 million is to be spent on processing machinery, $4 million on construction materials and labor, and $0.5 million on engineering and technical services. The total output effect is estimated at over $10 million and 86 full- and part-time jobs added to the region's economy during construction (table A-5). Because building the plant is a one-time shock to the region, these effects are not expected to be permanent. The last phase of the analysis is to examine the impacts associated with the oilseed-crushing plant. In the first yearof operation, the plant will process the 1997 crambe crop, which is estimated to be nearly 60.1 million pounds. The value of production from the plant is difficult to determine because prices for crambe oil and meal are proprietary. Nevertheless, the direct output is calculated to be about $7.4 million, the midpoint of the estimated values of oil and meal determined earlier. Including indirect and induced effects, the total value added impact from crambe processing is estimated at $9.1 million, with a possible increase of 40 new jobs (table A-6). Under the first scenario, the combined direct effect from crambe production, the construction of the processing plant, and the crushing of the 1997 crambe crop is estimated at $17.9 million and an added 88 new jobs in the North Dakota study region (table A-7). Adding the indirect and the induced effects accounts fora nearly $23-million impact on total output and an increase of 174 jobs. Total impacts are not estimated for the second scenario given the uncertainty of the alternative uses of the land used for crambe expansion. The added jobs come from different economic sectors. Direct job impacts occur in the agricultural, construction, manufacturing, and services sectors (table A-8). The indirect and induced effects show job gains mainly in the trade and services sectors. Most of the new trade jobs are in wholesale trade and eating and drinking establishments, while the model predicts that hospitals account for most of the new service jobs. When total jobs are considered, 24 percent are in services and 22 percent are in construction. The employment and income impacts from crambe production will be sustainable for the North Dakota study region if the demand for crambe does not fluctuate significantly. Industry sources estimate that about 50,000 acres of crambe would supply market clearing levels of crambe oil. Once the Foster County processing plant reaches full-scale operation of processing other oilseeds in addition to crambe, employment in this value-added industry will likely increase beyond the estimates in this analysis. Conclusions The development of new industrial crops may result in modest rural employment and income growth in agriculturally related industries. Choosing new crops that can attract related industries to a region, such as oilseed crushing, is key to using industrial demand as a tool for rural development. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of crambe to a farming-dependent region of North Dakota. A full 42 wage and salary jobs were added to the area as a direct result of the increase in the production and processing of crambe. Through local purchases of supplies and the spending of crambe-related income, the industry generates another 46 wage and salary jobs. The region will enjoy the added benefit of the construction activity while the plant is being built, temporarily adding 46 new positions and generating another 40 jobs in various industries as the workers spend their wages. The crambe case study also underscores the importance of value-addedindustries to the economy. The higher wage jobs in such industries provideopportunities for nonmetropolitan residents, thereby aiding in the retention of populationin rural areas. References 1. Glaser, Lewrene K., "Crambe: An Economic Assessment of theFeasibility of Providing Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance," ERS, Washington, DC, November 1996. 2. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, "Agricultural Commodities as Industrial Raw Materials," OTA-F-476,Washington, DC, May 1991. 3. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research Service, "New Industrial Uses, New Markets for U.S.Crops: Status of Technology and Commercial Adoption," Washington,DC, August 1993. 4. Van Dyne, Donald L., Melvin G. Blase, and Kenneth D. Carlson, "Industrial Feedstocks and Products From High ErucicAcid Oil: Crambe and Industrial Rapeseed," University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, March 1990. Special Article Comparative Economics of Producing Lesquerella in Various Areas of the Southwestern United States by Donald L. Van Dyne Abstract: Lesquerella is a new oilseed crop under developmentin Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. A sensitivity analysis was prepared that estimates net returns per acre given varying combinations of production costs, seed yields, and seed prices. Twenty-one counties in the three states have been identified as
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